There’s a Better Way To Measure How Much Russians Support Putin
Most polls just measure the ability of Russians to pick the safest answer. But when questions are more open-ended, they are more skeptical.
Recent trust ratings for President Vladimir Putin have sparked debate about whether support for his war efforts remains constant or is on a slow decline. However, the current methods used to measure this support are questioned for their validity and effectiveness in providing an accurate snapshot of Russian attitudes. Despite the hardships faced by the Russian people over the past four and a half years, including thousands of deaths, economic losses, and restrictions, approximately 70% of Russians still express trust in the Kremlin.
Closed-ended polling, which limits respondents to a set list of answers and asks if they trust Putin, only gauges their ability to provide the most socially acceptable response. A decline in this indicator is crucial in autocratic regimes transitioning to totalitarianism, where support for the leader must be consistently high. Speaking out against the war is considered heretical, and maintaining public support requires constant reminders of acceptable behavior.
Putin's trust ratings, published regularly, demonstrate a minimally acceptable level of trust, diverting attention from the true level of support. The Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia conducted open-ended surveys in Krasnodar and Rostov regions, asking respondents to name the politician they trust most. Results revealed that Putin's support in these regions was significantly lower than the 68-70% reported by more prescriptive surveys.
Only 39% in Krasnodar and 37% in Rostov named Putin, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov being the second most trusted figure at 4% and 2% respectively.
The survey also revealed that a majority of Russians in both regions have no trust in any political figures. Younger generations express even less trust in Putin, with only 16% in Krasnodar and 24% in Rostov under 30 years old naming him as their top choice. The trust gap is even wider between younger and older generations, with only 16% of those under 30 trusting Putin compared to 48% of those aged 55 and above in Krasnodar, and 45% in Rostov.
Younger residents of major cities also show less trust in Putin and are more likely to express distrust towards all politicians. These findings suggest that Putin's legitimacy is increasingly challenged, particularly among younger generations and urban populations, highlighting the need for more open-ended methods to gauge the true level of trust in the Russian leader.
Written by urgent.news from The Moscow Times - Opinion's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
