The future of Gulf security lies beyond Hormuz

The 2026 Hormuz crisis has taught a critical lesson about the future of Gulf security. It is no longer enough to focus solely on defending the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz has become so vital that dependence on it poses a strategic vulnerability. The American military presence and the freedom of navigation were once the principal external guarantors of the region’s balance of power.

However, the events of this year have shown that protecting Hormuz alone is insufficient. Iran has recognized this vulnerability for years and has used it to impose costs on its neighbors and the global economy by making passage through Hormuz dangerous and uncertain.

Gulf states must shift their security strategy beyond military power within the narrow space. The goal should be to reduce the value that adversaries can extract from disrupting Hormuz. This involves developing infrastructure and supply chains that provide alternative routes and lessen the impact of any potential disruptions. Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline and Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, as well as ports outside the strait and overland corridors, are now part of the national security architecture.

Similarly, ports in Duqm and Salalah, along with rail links and logistics networks, expand the Gulf’s options and make it harder for any adversary to use Hormuz as a strategic tool.

Deterrence through geography is a crucial aspect of this new approach. It aims to make the threat of disrupting Hormuz less decisive by diversifying routes and reducing the political and military gains adversaries can achieve from such disruptions. Building infrastructure and supply chains beyond Hormuz is essential, as it limits the impact of a single chokepoint. No single route, partner, or security arrangement should become indispensable, as this creates vulnerabilities.

The solution extends beyond Hormuz and encompasses the wider regional space, including the Red Sea, Bab Al Mandeb, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. Ports, sea lanes, naval actors, and supply chains in these areas will increasingly determine the resilience of Gulf states in the face of future shocks. This broader approach also changes the dynamics of relations with neighboring and nearby powers.

Oman, with its direct access to the Arabian Sea beyond Hormuz, becomes more valuable when protecting this chokepoint. India, as a major energy market and economic partner, along with a central naval power in the Indian Ocean, plays a crucial role in maintaining open sea lanes between the Gulf and Asia. Pakistan, with its strategic position on the Arabian Sea and strong ties with Gulf states, also contributes to a comprehensive security strategy.