The future of Gulf security lies beyond Hormuz

The 2026 Hormuz crisis revealed that the strategic importance of Hormuz has become so immense that dependence on it has become a strategic vulnerability for the Gulf region. Traditionally, the focus of Gulf security revolved around the Strait of Hormuz as the gateway to the world, with the US military presence safeguarding freedom of navigation and regional balance of power.

However, this approach has its limits. While protecting Hormuz remains crucial, it is no longer sufficient. A region with heavy reliance on a single narrow passage for energy exports, trade, and economic security becomes vulnerable whenever that passage becomes a target in military confrontations or negotiation tactics. Iran has long recognized this vulnerability and has used it to impose significant costs on its neighbors and the global economy, merely by making passage through Hormuz dangerous, expensive, and uncertain.

To build a sustainable Gulf response, it is essential to reduce the value adversaries can extract from disrupting Hormuz rather than solely focusing on military defense. This requires shifting the Gulf's security strategy from solely defending the strait to making its disruption less capable of paralyzing the entire region or altering its political calculations.

Infrastructure projects like Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline (Petroline) connecting the eastern oil fields with Yanbu on the Red Sea, and Abu Dhabi's Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop) leading to the Fujairah export terminal outside Hormuz, have evolved into integral components of the region's security architecture. Similarly, ports outside the strait, such as Duqm and Salalah, along with overland corridors, rail links, and logistics networks, have expanded the Gulf's options beyond the narrow passage of Hormuz.

This approach, termed "deterrence through geography," aims to make the threat of disrupting Hormuz less decisive by diversifying export, trade, and supply routes. While escaping one chokepoint does not guarantee an alternative route, a broader system in which no single route, partner, or security arrangement becomes indispensable is crucial.

This transformation of Gulf security extends beyond the Gulf coast and encompasses the Red Sea, Bab Al Mandeb, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and the Indian Ocean. The ports, sea lanes, naval actors, and supply chains in this wider space will play a significant role in determining the resilience of Gulf states to future shocks.

The evolving security landscape also necessitates reevaluating relations with neighboring and nearby powers, such as Oman, India, and Pakistan. Their strategic importance extends beyond their positions within the Gulf system, as they offer maritime depth and direct access to the Arabian Sea and beyond the Hormuz chokepoint.