Southeast Asia Isn’t Buying Elbridge Colby’s Flexible Realism

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby recently completed a weeklong tour of Southeast Asia, visiting the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia. His mission was to reassure allies and partners that the United States remains committed to the region. However, the Trump administration's actions seem to contradict Colby's strategic messaging and have raised concerns about potential U.S. withdrawal.

During the tour, Colby addressed the Stratbase Institute in the Philippines, advocating for a tough-love approach to the region. He criticized the liberal commentariat for painting a picture of U.S. disengagement from the area, insisting that Washington is "digging in." Yet, at the same time, the administration has redirected a U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East, shifted THAAD missile defense systems from South Korea to the region, and ordered a reduction in U.S. military exercises with South Korea.

Colby characterized U.S. alliances as based on "mutual respect" and stressed that the United States seeks "partners, not protectorates." However, Colby's rhetoric belies the reality of Trump's policies, which involve economic and political coercion, as well as hollow claims of not abandoning the region.

The administration's transactional approach is not new, as it often treats the autonomy of small states as a secondary concern, similar to its Cold War policies. During his visit to Jakarta, Colby met with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and senior officials to advance a defense relationship grounded in respect for Indonesian sovereignty. However, this rhetoric was undermined by the administration's pressure on Indonesia to grant overflight access for U.S. military aircraft and potential rotational presence.

Colby portrayed the Trump administration's foreign policy as "practical and pragmatic" while criticizing past administrations for being "hidebound by outdated convention or rigid adherence to liberal dogma." However, Colby's use of "pragmatism," "realism," and "common sense" is a rhetorical sleight of hand. Trump officials, including Colby, depict the administration's policies as guided by some overarching strategic coherence, in contrast to past administrations' values-based approach. Nevertheless, Colby's remarks obscure the fact that the Trump administration has its own blinders.

The administration's approach is based on several outdated assumptions about the global economy, deterrence, and how to keep adversaries at bay in an anarchic world. In reality, a world with less economic interdependence, less immigration, and states spending more on their own military power could lead to a breakdown in trust and an increased likelihood of war.