Semiconductors Lift Growth, Deepening Polarization Fears

The South Korean economy experienced a surge in 2026, led by semiconductors. Growth rates increased and large conglomerate exports and profits soared. However, doubts arose about whether this progress trickled down to domestic demand, employment, and low-wage workers. The K-shaped polarization of growth emerged as a prominent concern.

Professor Lee Kang-kook of Ritsumeikan University in Japan highlighted the possibility of a K-shaped economy during a 6th National Future Strategy Seminar, noting that many people worry about this outcome. He analyzed the changes in South Korea's growth model since the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the Lee Jae-myung administration's strategy centered on AI and semiconductors.

The growth model changed as the link between exports and domestic demand weakened due to industries becoming more capital and technology-intensive. This resulted in exports no longer being as powerful in driving employment, wages, and consumption increases.

Professor Lee also criticized the Yoon Suk Yeol administration's income-led growth efforts, stating that while there were improvements in reducing inequality based on disposable income and labor income share, the administration failed to produce results in terms of growth due to not actively expanding public finances during sluggish investment periods. He was particularly critical of income inequality expansion after 2023, primarily due to corporate and income tax cuts and reduced research and development budgets.

Professor Kang Kyung-hoon of Dongguk University agreed that expanding domestic demand and improving income distribution were desirable, but questioned how much this can actually raise the long-term growth rate under normal economic conditions. He also expressed concerns about systemic risks in AI investments due to companies' closely intertwined equity investments and supply contracts.