Israel’s new Syria dilemma: Netanyahu’s Russia playbook faces 'Turkey test'
NATIONAL AFFAIRS: Can the kind of deconfliction mechanism PM Benjamin Netanyahu established with Putin in Syria be replicated with Erdogan’s Turkey?
The Middle East's dynamics underwent a significant shift on September 30, 2015, when Russian fighter planes conducted their first combat sorties in the region since the Cold War's end. President Vladimir Putin arrived in Syria to support then-President Bashar al-Assad, following intelligence reports provided by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Nine days prior, Netanyahu had met with Putin in Moscow to discuss establishing a deconfliction mechanism to prevent Israeli and Russian pilots from accidentally engaging each other over Syrian skies. This arrangement persisted for nearly a decade, with Israel refraining from interfering with Russia's interests in Syria and Russia allowing Israel to safeguard its own.
The underlying agreement was simple: "You handle your affairs, I'll manage mine, and we should refrain from clashing as long as we stay within our respective domains."
This arrangement proved effective, enabling Israel to carry out numerous attacks in Syria without direct confrontation with Russian forces. However, the situation took a turn on August 8, 2026, when Israel targeted the Abu al-Duhur air base in Idlib province, located about 60 kilometers from the Turkish border.
Netanyahu explained the attack in a statement, emphasizing that Israel would not permit Turkey to establish a military presence near the Syrian border. He added that despite Turkey's hostile stance towards Israel, the message was initially received but deemed unheeded.
Turkey's aggressive rhetoric and actions, including support for Hamas and hostile statements towards Israel, fueled the prime minister's concern. Moreover, the proximity of the air base to a potential flight route for Israeli aircraft to Iran further heightened Israel's apprehensions.
Israel claimed that the air base's deployment posed a threat to its security, while Syria denied any plans for a Turkish military base or permanent troop presence. The Israeli statement, nevertheless, highlighted that the understanding between Jerusalem and Damascus had been violated by Turkey's actions.
The incident sent a clear message to Syria to respect the previous understandings and to Turkey that Israel had redlines that would not be crossed. The incident also prompted a response from the US Ambassador to Turkey, who criticized the strike as an unnecessary escalation that hindered regional stability.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
