Euro: PMI strength supports against US Dollar – BBH

Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) indicates EUR/USD is strengthening due to broader US Dollar weakness and more robust than expected Eurozone August Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. The composite PMI reached a nine-month high of 52.1, above forecasts, driven primarily by manufacturing activity. Haddad points out that the swaps market has largely accounted for a 25 basis point European Central Bank (ECB) rate rise in September and around 60 basis points of tightening over the next twelve months, bringing rates close to the top of the ECB’s neutral range.

The Eurozone PMI of 52.1, higher than the expected 51.7 and previous reading of 52.0, signals solid and rapid growth in manufacturing. This suggests the ECB’s policy rate may stay at the upper end of the estimated range (1.75%-3.00%). Swaps rates have nearly fully priced a 25 basis point ECB rate hike to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting and a total of 60 basis points of tightening over the next twelve months.