El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met Office

The Met Office has warned that the El Niño event currently developing in the Pacific Ocean is expected to be the strongest in living memory. This powerful natural climate phenomenon raises global temperatures and heightens the likelihood of extreme weather conditions. When combined with the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office predicts it is very likely that 2027 will be the hottest year on record globally.

Preliminary evidence suggests that weather patterns worldwide are already being influenced by this event, with below-average monsoon rains in India and reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

According to Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, this El Niño is unprecedented in his forecasts, which date back to his career. While climate change may not necessarily increase the likelihood of El Niño events, its impacts could be more severe in a warming world. El Niño is a naturally occurring weather pattern that occurs roughly every two to seven years, lasting for about a year.

It is characterized by weakened or reversed trade winds, which allow warm water to spread eastward, releasing heat into the atmosphere and altering rainfall patterns.

Scientists declare an El Niño when sea surface temperatures in a specific area of the Pacific are 0.5°C or more above the long-term average, a threshold that current measurements have surpassed by over 2°C. Forecasters at the Met Office anticipate that this warming could surge above 3°C as the event nears its peak, potentially making it the strongest El Niño since the 19th century.

Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, notes that some other climate groups have projected even stronger El Niños, possibly even 4°C above average.