El Nino set to be most intense ‘for over a century’: UK forecasters
Met Office predicts 'unprecedented' sea surface temperature rise of 3C (5.4F) plus will heighten extreme weather risks.
The UK Met Office has predicted that this year's El Nino weather pattern will be the largest in over a century. Sea surface temperatures are expected to reach unheard-of levels, with anomalies up to nearly two degrees already observed. El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the baseline average, leading to global changes in winds, atmospheric pressure, rainfall patterns, and overall warmer temperatures.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, stated that the upcoming El Nino is anticipated to peak at more than three degrees, a phenomenon never seen before in modern climate records. He emphasized that it is an unprecedented event, adding that the intensity of the El Nino signal has surprised him in his forecasts.
The anomalous warmth is expected to have particularly strong effects in the Tropics, where severe droughts are predicted in places like South America and the West Pacific. Current temperatures in the region are running about 2.6C above average.
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