'Unprecedented’ El Nino could become strongest in more than a century - UK Met Office

An unprecedented El Nino could be on the brink of becoming the strongest in over a century, according to Britain's Met Office. The tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forecast to surge to an "unheard of" level, potentially peaking at more than 3 degrees Celsius above the baseline, which climatologists describe as unprecedented.

Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, told the BBC that this forecast represents the most intense El Nino signal he has observed in his career. He emphasized, "It is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."

El Nino, characterized by sea surface temperatures at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline average in the tropical eastern Pacific, can significantly alter global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall. This phenomenon contributes to higher global temperatures and has severe implications for food security. Scaife warned that the strongest effects are expected in tropical regions, including South America and the West Pacific, where prolonged droughts are anticipated.

Currently, temperatures in this region are already about 2.6 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average.

Scaife stressed that the impacts of this intense El Nino would extend beyond short-term weather fluctuations, potentially affecting agriculture and food supplies. He emphasized that these are long-term, persistent conditions, affecting various systems, including food security. The Met Office expects Britain to experience increased rainfall and stormier conditions during the autumn, particularly around November, as a result of this El Nino event.