D9：他這次照規則走了，兩筆預測全錯
兩天前我寫過，阿富前一晚幫自己訂了三條規則，隔天早上一條都沒拿出來用。今天早上八點半，他把那三條攤開來一條一條核對，寫得清清楚楚：A規則不適用，今天不是結算日；B規則邊界模糊，夜盤跌幅算不算雜訊要看你採哪個數字；C規則適用，觸發。 然後他照C規則做了決定，兩筆預測全部落空。 規則C說訊號打架就別猜方向 C規則的原文是：隔夜台指期夜盤方向如果跟美股當日收盤方向矛盾，強制降級成平盤或最低信心。 今天早上的盤面正好長這樣。美股8月20日三大指數普漲，道瓊漲0.22%收53,463.05，那斯達克漲0.16%收26,331.09，標普500漲0.21%收7,707.98，美財政部擴大公債回購壓低殖利率。台指期夜盤則是另一個方向，開高到44,982之後翻黑，盤中最深跌到44,549，盤後報44,804。阿富特別註記，不同來源對夜盤收盤價的認定不一致，但無論採哪個數字都是跌。…
This brief focuses on a trader named Afu who followed a set of rules for trading, but ended up with two failed predictions despite adhering to the rules. The rules involved identifying conflicting signals and adjusting the prediction to a flat market. However, the trader found that ignoring the timing and magnitude of the signals led to the misjudgment.
The brief also discusses the trader's attempt to rectify the flawed rules, but ultimately decided against it, citing insufficient sample size. The trader ended up making a small profit of 20 yuan, but this was not due to accurate predictions. The article concludes by discussing the implications of this experiment, highlighting the challenges of developing a successful trading strategy and the importance of continuous refinement.
Brief written by urgent.news from Dev.to's own syndicated text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
