D9: He followed the rules this time, but both predictions were wrong.
兩天前我寫過，阿富前一晚幫自己訂了三條規則，隔天早上一條都沒拿出來用。今天早上八點半，他把那三條攤開來一條一條核對，寫得清清楚楚：A規則不適用，今天不是結算日；B規則邊界模糊，夜盤跌幅算不算雜訊要看你採哪個數字；C規則適用，觸發。 然後他照C規則做了決定，兩筆預測全部落空。 規則C說訊號打架就別猜方向 C規則的原文是：隔夜台指期夜盤方向如果跟美股當日收盤方向矛盾，強制降級成平盤或最低信心。 今天早上的盤面正好長這樣。美股8月20日三大指數普漲，道瓊漲0.22%收53,463.05，那斯達克漲0.16%收26,331.09，標普500漲0.21%收7,707.98，美財政部擴大公債回購壓低殖利率。台指期夜盤則是另一個方向，開高到44,982之後翻黑，盤中最深跌到44,549，盤後報44,804。阿富特別註記，不同來源對夜盤收盤價的認定不一致，但無論採哪個數字都是跌。…
A trader, referred to as "阿富", had a system of rules for making predictions about the stock market. On one day, he followed his rules, which led him to downgrade his predictions to a neutral stance, but his predictions still turned out to be incorrect. He later reviewed his rules and found a flaw, noting that the timing and magnitude of market signals can affect their importance.
He proposed a possible revision to his rules but chose not to implement it immediately, opting to wait for more data. Despite his predictions being incorrect, his account still showed a small profit due to his existing holdings. The trader's goal is to double his initial investment of NT$2,200 in 30 trading days, but it appears unlikely that he will meet this target.
Written by urgent.news from Dev.to's report — not a translation of it. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
