Climate change could triple the price of wheat
Bread, pasta and breakfast cereals may seem far removed from dry fields in North America, Europe or Asia. Yet when water shortages hit several of the world's most important wheat-growing regions simultaneously, the consequences can be felt all the way to supermarket shelves and bakery aisles.
A new study published in Earth's Future reveals that climate change could triple the price of wheat. Researchers developed a new indicator called Severe Water Scarcity (SWS) to measure the impact of drought on global wheat markets. SWS tracks the proportion of cropland experiencing drought during critical growth periods. The study found that severe water scarcity alone explains around 74% of annual fluctuations in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.
With global temperatures rising, severe water scarcity is expected to affect larger areas of wheat-growing regions. Under 2 degrees of global warming, average wheat prices are projected to reach approximately USD 273 per tonne, while at 3 degrees of warming, prices could soar to about USD 364 per tonne. Wheat is a crucial food crop for billions of people, and drought affecting multiple major production regions simultaneously can have far-reaching consequences on international markets and food security.
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