China’s drone production capacity can only meet 60% of war demand: study

A recent study examining China's drone production capacity in the event of war found that the country's industrial system would only be able to meet 60% of the military's drone demand. The research, led by Professor Zhang Jihai from the Beijing Institute of Technology, used an AI model to simulate a sudden war and the effects on China's supply chain.

The model accounted for factors such as production capacity, order backlogs, budgets, civilian factory conversion, and inventories. The study concluded that capacity expansion would not quickly close the gap between demand and supply, as new production lines take time to build. Recent conflicts, such as the US military's use of all its tactical missile systems and precision strike missiles during the Iran war, and Ukraine's massive drone production plans, highlight the importance of drone production in modern warfare.

The researchers noted that modern warfare is increasingly about industrial capacity and production mobilisation. While China already dominates the global drone supply chain, converting civilian manufacturers into military producers during wartime would be a complex process. The study's findings suggest that a nationwide industrial mobilisation involving non-military manufacturers could produce different results than the AI simulation, which only considered existing military and civilian drone manufacturers.