China’s drone production capacity can only meet 60% of war demand: study
Even when fully mobilised, China’s industrial system would only be able to meet 60 per cent of the country’s military demand for drones in a conflict, according to a rare study looking into the expected effects of a sudden war. The estimates were produced by an artificial intelligence model that covered a multilevel supply chain linking drone assembly plants with subsystem and component…
A recent study published in the Journal of System Simulation found that even when fully mobilized, China's industrial system can only meet 60% of its military demand for drones in the event of a conflict. The research, led by Professor Zhang Jihai from the National Defence Mobilisation Research Centre and the Beijing Institute of Technology, utilized an AI model to examine the effects of a sudden war on China's drone production capacity.
The study accounted for factors such as supply chains, production capacity, order backlogs, and civilian factory conversion. It highlighted that new production lines take time to build, and the rapid mobilisation of China's industrial capacity would still face a significant supply-demand gap during high-intensity military demand shocks.
In recent conflicts, the US Army had reportedly used virtually all of its army tactical missile systems and precision strike missiles during a five-month war with Iran, while Ukraine was expected to produce 6 million to 7 million small first-person view attack drones in 2026, with US production remaining a fraction of that level. The gap between demand and supply becomes even more pronounced when considering the potential mobilisation of Chinese companies that do not normally produce military equipment.
The researcher compared three scenarios: no mobilisation, rule-based mobilisation, and an AI-based strategy. Median wartime order fulfilment reached only 63.4% in simulations where demand rose to three times its normal level. This suggests that while China's industrial capacity could partially meet military demand, the supply of core components remains a complex challenge.
Written by urgent.news from Reuters Business via SCMP's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
