South Africa shows Africa how to make MVNOs work

South Africa is leading the way in Africa's mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market, according to the 2026 Africa MVNO report by Africa Analysis. The country currently has approximately 4.4 million active MVNO SIMs, with that number expected to rise to 14.4 million by 2030. Africa's MVNO market is projected to increase from 7.9 million subscribers in 2025 to 39.6 million by 2030.

While 21 of Africa's 54 markets are identified as having high or very high MVNO potential, only nine markets currently have active MVNO operations. South Africa's lead in the MVNO market can be attributed to regulatory openness, a mature wholesale infrastructure, strong consumer brands, and a developed digital economy. The market has had more time to establish an MVNO ecosystem compared to other African countries.

Cell C pioneered wholesale access, while MTN has expanded its MVNO hosting activities. The country's MVNO growth is increasingly driven by banks, retailers, and digital businesses that use mobile connectivity as part of broader services like banking, loyalty, retail, and digital offerings. Capitec Connect, FNB Connect, Standard Bank Connect, and Nedbank Connect are major players in the South African market, representing around 41% of the market.

Retail and digital MVNOs associated with Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Mr Price, and Melon Mobile also play a significant role. The South African experience demonstrates that the strongest model is the "embedded MVNO," where connectivity supports an existing financial, retail, or digital customer relationship. Africa's overall MVNO market is entering a new phase, but the continent should not be viewed as a single market.

Africa has close to 1.5 billion mobile subscriptions, and the challenge lies in whether individual markets have the necessary regulatory framework, wholesale economics, customer-switching mechanisms, and digital infrastructure to turn their scale into a sustainable MVNO opportunity. South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and Uganda are expected to account for 85% of the continent's MVNO subscriber base by 2030.

While Nigeria has substantial potential, commercial deployment has been slower than the number of MVNO licenses issued. The major challenge now is execution, with issues around wholesale pricing, host-network agreements, technical integration, and sufficient retail margins.