Olivia Chow recaptures double-digit lead in Toronto mayoral race, new poll shows

Incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow maintains a substantial lead in the upcoming municipal election, according to a new poll. A survey conducted by Liaison Strategies shows Chow with 49 percent support, narrowly edging out opposition City Councillor Brad Bradford, who comes in second with 38 percent. Former federal minister and late entrant Chris Alexander would garner 11 percent of the vote if the election were held today, according to the poll.

David Valantin, the principal at Liaison Strategies, stated that the ballot has shifted back towards a clearer advantage for Chow. Chow has held the position of Toronto mayor for three years, having won a 2023 byelection after former mayor John Tory resigned. Bradford, once included in the race, has emerged as her primary challenger.

While Bradford possesses a path to victory, Valantin emphasized that Chow remains in charge. Among decided and leaning voters, he leads men 47 percent to 39 percent and leads in Etobicoke, one of his strongest areas, with 56 percent to 34 percent. Chow leads women 58 percent to 29 percent, downtown with 59 percent to 27 percent, North York with 51 percent to 35 percent, and Scarborough with 46 percent to 37 percent.

A positive development for Chow in the poll is an improvement in the perception of how the city is currently being run. Liaison's poll shows that 48 percent of people believe Toronto is heading in the right direction, compared to 45 percent who feel the direction of travel is negative. The Toronto mayoral election is scheduled to take place on October 26, with the deadline for nominations to enter the race on Friday.