Olivia Chow recaptures double-digit lead in Toronto mayoral race, new poll shows

In the latest poll ahead of Toronto's municipal election on October 26, incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow has solidified a double-digit lead over her competitors. Liaison Strategies conducted the survey, revealing Chow with 49 percent of decided voters, followed closely by Coun. Brad Bradford at 38 percent. Former federal minister and late entrant Chris Alexander garnered 11 percent support. According to David Valantin, principal at Liaison, "The ballot has moved back toward a clearer Chow advantage."

Chow, who has been Toronto's mayor for three years, won a 2023 byelection after former mayor John Tory resigned. Bradford, her main challenger, has a narrower path to victory, with strong support in Etobicoke. Valantin noted, "Bradford's challenge is that his vote is real, but narrower." Among decided and leaning voters, Bradford leads men 47 percent to 39 percent and dominates Etobicoke, where he has 56 percent support compared to Chow's 34 percent.

Chow's perception of city management has seen a slight improvement, with 48 percent of people believing Toronto is heading in the right direction, compared to 45 percent who feel the direction is negative. The poll also highlights differences in support across various demographics and city districts. Chow leads among women at 58 percent to 29 percent, has a 59 percent to 27 percent lead in downtown areas, 51 percent to 35 percent in North York, and 46 percent to 37 percent in Scarborough.