Nigeria’s economic reforms face a crucial test as 2027 election approaches

Shukurat Oyedele, a 43-year-old mother of four, operates a small shop selling plastic goods near Offa Garage in Ilorin, north-central Nigeria. As prices have risen, customers have become less frequent and demand fewer goods. Oyedele says that her profits have fallen and her shop now carries fewer items. Despite the challenges, she continues to open the shop daily to avoid shutting down entirely.

The political dilemma facing President Bola Tinubu as Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election centers on whether voters will assess his reforms based on long-term promises or the immediate economic hardship they have experienced. Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy in 2023 and implemented foreign-exchange reforms, which aimed to strengthen public finances and attract investment.

However, the benefits of these reforms may take time to translate into improved living conditions for the average Nigerian. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) acknowledged that Nigeria's reforms improved macroeconomic stability but warned that daily life remains difficult for many citizens. For Tinubu, the challenge is not only defending his economic policies but also convincing voters to endure their immediate costs while they wait for the reforms' benefits.

Nigerian research firm SBM Intelligence's Cheta Nwanze noted that voters prioritize what they can feel in their own lives, not GDP growth figures. The gap between government economic arguments and household realities could be a defining issue in the election. Economic hardship is not the only challenge faced by the government. Security issues, such as armed fighters, kidnappers, and religious groups operating in certain regions, also remain a concern for citizens.