Dax aktuell: Dax fällt unter 26.000 Punkte – Rally steht vor wichtigem Belastungstest

Der Dax, der führende Aktienindex Deutschlands, fiel am Donnerstag unter 26.000 Punkte, was für eine wichtige Belastung für die am kommenden Wochen geplanten Sommerrally steht. Die Sharpened rhetoric surrounding the Iran war is impacting market sentiment negatively. There seems to be a lack of follow-on buyers. In early trading, the Dax fell 0.4 percent to 25,989 points.

This is the first time in the current month of August that the German benchmark has fallen below the 26,000 mark. Only three loss days have occurred in recent weeks, compared to one loss day last month. After this decline, a strong winning streak followed, pushing the Dax above several new records. The current high is 26,573.50 points, with over 3.5 percent gained in August alone.

Such a strong rally makes the Dax susceptible to profit-taking, but such takeovers are occurring only to a small extent. Currently, there are very few buyers driving the prices. It is conceivable that those willing to buy will wait for stronger pullbacks before re-entering at a lower level. As a result, we see an extremely low trading volume over a longer period.

Trading volumes of Dax shares were below average in the previous week and have continued this trend this week, with only 44 million shares changing hands on average per day. The volume on Monday (38 million) was the second-lowest in this year's stock market. Trading was even lower on Good Friday. Stress is coming from the bond markets this week.

High debt levels worldwide and concerns over persistent inflation are leading investors to demand higher risk premiums. This development has surprised many economists. Interest rates for European long-term bonds are still near their all-time highs reached the previous day. Thirty-year German Bunds, the benchmark for Europe's long-term bond market, are yielding 3.76 percent as of Wednesday.

Similar trends are seen in French, Italian, and Spanish bonds. Interest rates for ten-year German government bonds have also recently hit a 15-year high. In the US, pressure to intervene in policy has lessened somewhat. The yield on 30-year US bonds has reverted to the week's low of 5.19 percent, down from a peak of 5.34 percent just a week prior.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell doubled his purchases of medium-term bonds, driving up bond prices and lowering yields. Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for governments and businesses, which could trigger a vicious cycle of increased borrowing and higher debt servicing costs. Stocks may also be pressured due to higher bond yields.

On the one hand, higher-yielding bonds make them more attractive compared to stocks. On the other hand, general market uncertainty leads to reluctance to invest in riskier assets. Higher gold prices are a sign that investors are increasingly turning to other safe havens besides the dollar. The price of one fine ounce of gold was 4,551 dollars on Thursday, marking a three-month high.

It was at 4,400 dollars the previous day. Other precious metals like silver and platinum have also risen. US President Donald Trump's rhetoric is adding to the general market uncertainty. After failing to reach an agreement with Iran, he threatened "MASSIVE economic consequences" and an "unprecedented economic war and isolation" on his Truth Social platform.

His rhetoric has once again put upward pressure on energy prices. The price of European Brent oil for October delivery is over 92 dollars per barrel, the highest since mid-July. US oil (WTI) costs around 85 dollars, unchanged since early August despite surprisingly high crude oil inventories. The TTF future for European natural gas delivery in September has also reached a new high at over 63 euros.