Area in Europe affected by wildfires could triple as a result of climate change

A recent study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) has projected that the area of Europe affected by wildfires could triple by the end of the century due to climate change. The research reveals that in a low emissions scenario, where temperatures rise by around 1.8C above the pre-industrial average, approximately 39% more land would be burned annually by 2100 compared to current averages.

However, in a high emissions scenario with global temperatures increasing by roughly 3.6C, the burned land would soar to about 192% of today's levels. The lead author of the study, Maik Billing, explains that climate change is intensifying hot, dry, and windy conditions, leading to more severe wildfires across Europe. Particularly concerning are the Mediterranean region and Western and Central Europe, which have not experienced many fires historically but may face increased wildfire activity as temperatures rise.

The study's co-authors from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research model the potential impact of human intervention in fire management, indicating that with continued improvements, the burned area could be reduced by 92% in a 1.8°C future and by 72% in a roughly 3.6°C future. However, the researchers caution that these results may be optimistic regarding the effectiveness of fire management in a much warmer climate.

Thomas Hickler, a Senckenberg scientist and study co-author, emphasizes that investing in wildfire management, including training crews, providing proper equipment, and ensuring good coordination, could significantly mitigate the effects of wildfires. He cautions, though, that if fires become truly extreme, the ability to contain them may break down, and it remains uncertain where this tipping point lies.

Simultaneously, a separate report by Mayor of London and London Councils warns that extreme heat and ongoing climate change could cost the capital up to £36 billion annually by the 2050s if no further action is taken. The report highlights that lost productivity due to high temperatures results in an estimated £577 million each year, accounting for nearly 90% of the £1.5 billion cost of London's three heatwaves in 2022.