Liners and Red Sea: Damn the Houthis, full speed ahead!

Container spot rates are showing a split, but that's the main positive regarding ocean shipping. Trans-Pacific lanes are soaring, with Asia-U.S. West Coast prices rising 9% to $7,422 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU). In contrast, Asia-U.S. East Coast prices have jumped 3% to a new high of $9,422 per FEU. Meanwhile, Asia-Europe lanes are cooling off, having peaked earlier than expected.

SONAR Ocean Booking Index data reveals China shipments growing moderately compared to a year ago. The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and carrier strategies are adapting accordingly. The U.S.-Iran MoU signed 60 days ago to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expired recently, and with Iranian attacks ongoing and the American blockade still active, reopening seems unlikely.

Higher insurance premiums to cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and increased fuel costs from the Hormuz closure have made diversions via Cape of Good Hope more costly than during 2023. Additionally, Houthi attacks on merchant vessels have resumed, adding to the challenges. Major carriers such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, along with CMA CGM and Cosco, are committed to re-establishing Red Sea transits.

Early threats prompted changes, but recent market conditions, including persistent port congestion and labor strikes, may have bolstered their resolve. Asia-North Europe rates have dropped 20% to around $4,700 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean fell 30% to about $5,000 per FEU. Bunker prices have increased by 15% following the ceasefire collapse, with some carriers raising emergency fuel surcharges by approximately $90 per FEU in mid-September.

The Panama Canal Authority is reducing daily transits and decreasing Neopanamax draft, with canal transit surcharges of $200-$1,000 per FEU starting mid-September.