Is another UK heatwave on the way in September?
Some long range forecasts are suggesting autumn could be hotter and drier than average. Simon King explores whether a warm spell might be on the cards.
The UK is bracing for another heatwave in September, as long-range forecasts indicate a potential return of dry and sunny weather during the month. The Met Office and MeteoGroup have been predicting a hotter-than-average summer since June, with the potential for an increased risk of heatwaves. Meteorological summer ends on 31 August, and long-range forecasts are now focusing on meteorological autumn - September, October, and November.
Computer forecast models suggest that high pressure may become established south of the UK early in September, leading to dry and mostly sunny conditions. This high pressure could also bring warmth from continental Europe, potentially boosting temperatures. While the recent rain has not fully saturated the soil to alleviate the drought, the seas around England and Wales are up to 3C above average, which could further contribute to higher land temperatures.
The Met Office suggests that the chance of a warm three-month period, including September, is higher than normal, increasing the risk of heatwaves and heat-related impacts, particularly in the first half of the period. However, as September is still two weeks away, it is too early to definitively predict when or if another heatwave will occur.
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