1989 to Now: Thom Albrecht on Freight’s Strange Cycle

Thom Albrecht, Chief Revenue Officer of Reliance Partners, believes the freight market cycle is the most intriguing he has observed in his career. Albrecht, who began his Wall Street career analyzing freight in 1989, identified five supply-side factors reshaping carrier capacity. These include English language proficiency enforcement, action on non-domiciled drivers, elimination of self-certification at CDL institutions, the abandonment of self-certification for electronic logging devices (ELDs), and legal consequences from the Montgomery Supreme Court decision.

Albrecht shared that while demand was not strong, it had improved, as evidenced by the Purchasing Managers Index survey, which reported growth in 9 out of 18 industries in July. He emphasized the planned elimination of ELD self-certification, noting that the U.S. market could potentially be reduced to 20 or fewer certified ELD providers, potentially eliminating devices used for falsifying records.

Albrecht argued for stiffer penalties on drivers and motor carriers for English language proficiency violations and suggested seizing freight as an enforcement tool. He also advocated for new entrant reform, proposing carriers answer 100 or more questions before obtaining a DOT number and raising the cost of obtaining a new DOT number from $300 to between $5,000 and $10,000.

Despite the challenges, Albrecht noted that an improved corn crop, driven by heavy rainfall, would contribute to strong grain exports moving by rail. He speculated that the freight cycle could extend until the end of 2027 or first quarter of 2028 if pending rules are enacted, but would be shorter if they are not.