US Dollar: Carry-supported but rangebound near term – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that still-attractive US Dollar (USD) carry and softer United States (US) data, which have reduced the odds of a September Fed hike, should keep the Dollar rangebound.
The US Dollar (USD) is currently rangebound near term, supported by attractive carry and softer US economic data, according to OCBC's Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong. This suggests that long-end US yields have not risen significantly further, preserving support for risk assets and carry trades. The market's focus now shifts to the July FOMC minutes, which will provide clarity on the Federal Reserve's inflation views and rate intentions.
Factors like oil prices, yields, and geopolitical tensions continue to keep markets on edge, but reduced expectations of Fed tightening should keep the USD in a range-bound position and support carry trades. The key event this week is the release of the July FOMC minutes, which will offer greater insight into policymakers' inflation outlook and the likelihood of maintaining rates as they are, despite three regional Fed presidents reportedly favoring higher rates.
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