Trump is waiting out Iran. Tehran is using the time to reshape the Middle East

President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Oman if it interferes with a proposed U.S.-Iran agreement concerning the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that Iran has effectively closed since the conflict began on February 28. The control of Hormuz is the main sticking point in the ongoing dispute between Tehran and Washington.

Fuel price fluctuations and public opposition to the war have put pressure on Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections, prompting Trump to issue these aggressive statements. Trump warned Fox News journalist Trey Yingst, "If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the shit out of them," referring to recent talks between Oman and Iran over the strait's control.

Oman, a U.S. ally in the Gulf, has not responded to Trump's comments publicly. Iran and Oman have been negotiating navigation arrangements through the strait, and Iran's foreign ministry announced on Monday that the two nations were working on a joint declaration. However, the collapse of a Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran interim deal to keep Hormuz open has intensified the conflict and spread it to Gulf allies and global shipping lanes.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the strait is under U.S. control, despite its heavy congestion. On Friday, he threatened to declare the Strait of Hormuz a U.S. territory, prompting Iran to claim it remains Iranian. Prior to the war's onset, the strait was an open international shipping route, carrying about a fifth of global oil supplies, which Tehran has leveraged as leverage against U.S. efforts to topple its regime and end its nuclear program.

Trump downplayed his eagerness for a deal, citing opposition to the war and Democratic efforts to seize control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. He also revealed a secret back-channel of communication with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, stating, "They're good poker players, but they're dying." The intense rhetoric surrounding Hormuz as the central flashpoint in the conflict has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies and global trade.