‘There is no breaking point’: The problem with Trump’s plan to economically strangle Iran

President Donald Trump is counting on Iran to give in to his economic pressure. However, Tehran may be prepared to endure even greater hardship. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims this is the most severe economic isolation the nation has ever faced, but former officials, U.S. ambassadors, and Middle East experts are doubtful that tightening the economic grip will force Iran to fulfill Trump's demands and end the conflict.

James Jeffrey, a former ambassador, believes the campaign is merely an attrition strategy, and it's difficult to imagine a decisive outcome after 20 years of U.S. sanctions, with Iranian experience of circumventing them. Iran's leaders view the conflict as existential, which means they are willing to bear extraordinary economic pain to prevent a regime collapse, particularly as U.S. inflation remains high and bonds are selling off.

The yield on U.S. 30-year government bonds recently hit its highest level in nearly two decades, a trend driven by ongoing war-related global fuel shortages and broader instability, adding more risk to bond markets. Iran's desire to withstand the pressure is a significant factor in some former administration officials' skepticism about the naval blockade's impact.

The administration has not disclosed further actions, but options include targeting Chinese banks that aid Iran's oil trade, expanding secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran, and confiscating Iranian assets under U.S. jurisdiction. Iran has dismissed U.S. sanctions, stating that squeezing them harder will not yield concessions.

White House aides maintain that the leverage remains with the U.S., but the question remains whether there is a breaking point for the regime, which has never hesitated to inflict economic hardship on its population.