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Russia’s economy is growing faster than expected. It probably won’t last.

Last week, Rosstat published seemingly encouraging news about the state of the economy: Russia’s GDP grew by 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter, after shrinking by 0.2% in the first three months of 2026. This result even exceeded the expectations of the Central Bank of Russia and the Economic Development Ministry. But it’s too early to talk about the economy’s recovery: the quarterly…

Russia’s economy is growing faster than expected. It probably won’t last.

Last week, Rosstat reported that Russia's economy grew by 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding initial expectations. This growth was driven by temporary factors, including more working days, increased military and government spending, and gains in several sectors. However, the analysis suggests this rebound is likely temporary.

The military-industrial complex's high demand and continued struggles in civilian sectors, coupled with the central bank's high interest rates, are factors that could impede long-term growth. Despite this, the government's optimism about the economy's prospects led to the firing of a respected economist who highlighted the central bank's role in the slowdown and the persistent challenges facing Russia's economy.

Written by urgent.news from Meduza (English)'s reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.

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