Oil climbs as fading US-Iran peace hopes raise supply risks

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as a deal aiming to end the Middle East conflict appeared increasingly unlikely, with Iran signaling a more aggressive military posture and the United States dismissing the possibility of extending a ceasefire agreement. Iran announced it would adopt a fully offensive military stance due to stalled negotiations for a permanent peace resolution, according to a senior Iranian official.

Meanwhile, the United States ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement. The breakdown in progress towards peace talks and resumption of oil tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has halted outward peace advancements, threatening to prolong the conflict initiated by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.

Brent crude futures increased by 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $91.14 by 00:03 GMT, after surging to their highest since July 30 on Monday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 42 cents to $85.04 a barrel, following a more than 1% gain earlier in the session to $85.37, their highest since July 31. Oil has seen a week-long surge as U.S.-Iran relations grow increasingly tense.

A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive, and shipping volumes continue to be minimal, according to KCM chief market analyst Tim Waterer. Following attacks on tankers, only five commodity vessels passed through the Hormuz strait on Saturday, with none registered for Sunday, compared to 31 vessels in the previous weekend.

Yemen's Houthis attacked what they claimed was a Saudi military ship and four escort vessels in the Red Sea with missiles, as reported by the group's military spokesperson Yahya Saree on Telegram. The dual blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remains a central concern in the current supply-risk narrative, Waterer noted.

Iran is separately negotiating an agreement on managing the strait with Oman, but U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb the Gulf state, a longstanding U.S. security ally. There are faint glimmers of hope for diplomacy, with reports suggesting Trump has initiated back-channel discussions with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

U.S. crude oil inventories are projected to have decreased last week alongside product inventories, as indicated by a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday.