Marginal seats a key bargaining chip in Melaka seat swap talks

Malaysia's election battleground of Melaka may soon be shaped by seat-swapping talks between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN). Constituencies that were previously won by narrow margins are seen as potential bargaining chips in the deal, according to Hisommudin Bakar, executive director of Ilham Centre. BN holds the upper hand due to its larger number of seats and stronger grassroots support, but PN stands to gain more from any agreement.

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has expressed openness to talks with other parties, including Pakatan Harapan (PH), for a potential seat swap deal. However, it is unlikely that PN will secure all its demands, as BN is expected to retain seats where it has traditionally had strong support, particularly in constituencies deemed safe.

BN may be willing to concede some narrowly won seats in exchange for others won by PN on larger margins. For instance, BN could potentially give up Serkam, where Umno won by only 79 votes, in return for seats won by PN with larger majorities, such as Bemban and Sungai Udang. Many of the closely contested seats in Melaka were won by margins of fewer than 1,000 votes, including Pengkalan Batu, Duyong, Tanjung Bidara, Gadek, Durian Tunggal, Paya Rumput, Pantai Kundor, and Rembia.

Due to the multi-cornered nature of the 2021 election, all three coalitions — BN, PN, and PH — contested each of the 28 constituencies. BN won 21 seats and formed the government, but Rembia assemblyman Jailani Khamis later defected to PAS, leaving the seat un-declared vacant for a by-election. BN might consider transferring power to PAS in Bukit Katil, a seat held by Amanah vice-president Adly Zahari since 2018, but PN's prospects of securing 14 seats, based on the parliamentary seats they won in the 2022 general election, are considered less likely by experts.