60 days later, a US-Iran stalemate, a disturbing new normal

Sixty days passed on Monday without the US and Iran reaching an agreement on a long-term peace framework. Throughout June and July, both sides had been fighting strikes, and the MoU gradually disintegrated due to disagreements on its interpretation. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, initiated after the US attack in February, remained unresolved.

The 60-day window saw the war intensify, with the Houthis and Saudi Arabia clashing over the partial blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb. Both the US and Iran are increasingly relying on economic warfare, each having their reasons. The US found that bombing alone was insufficient to weaken the hardline regime in Tehran and was facing a shortage of munitions.

Iran, on the other hand, knew that the US was here to stay in the region, and ballistic missiles fired at US bases or Israel would not alter that. The stalemate left the world at the mercy of a conflict that neither side seemed capable of ending. Donald Trump's stance oscillated between aggressive rhetoric and an insistence that a negotiated settlement was possible.

With a midterm election approaching, Trump needed to prove that the pressure campaign was yielding results without ensnaring the country in another foreign war. Iran, meanwhile, had to weigh the economic costs of the embargo and decide how long it could bear them without capitulating. Washington withdrew sanction waivers for Iranian oil in the international market, threatening to maintain its naval blockade "indefinitely."

Tehran believed it could pressure Trump until the midterms, viewing the stalemate as the new balance of power. It remained uncertain who would yield first, whether either side could gain the upper hand to negotiate a settlement or if the stalemate would become the new norm. If the deadlock persisted, India, which had coped with the consequences so far, would need to reconsider its economic, energy, and strategic interests.

Diplomacy alone would not suffice; India must minimize its heavy reliance on imported oil, expand strategic petroleum reserves, and heavily invest in alternative energy sources.