Kerusi marginal dijangka jadi modal rundingan pertukaran kerusi di Melaka

Melaka may serve as the next battleground in the upcoming political landscape, but collaboration between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional remains uncertain. The Executive Director of Ilham Centre, Hisommudin Bakar, suggests that the National Front party holds the advantage due to its majority in seats and a more robust root network.

However, Perikatan Nasional has more opportunities to benefit. The BN previously announced its readiness to continue working with PN ahead of the PRN Melaka, but the partnership between the two parties remains undecided. Hisommudin also revealed that the agreement could involve exchanging seats between parties. Though PN's chances of winning all their seats in negotiations with BN are slim, BN is not willing to relinquish seats traditionally supported by a stronger base, particularly in areas considered safe seats.

If BN agrees to cede some of its narrow-majority seats in 2021 for a trade-off with PN seats, it could potentially release the Serkam seat, which Umno won by just 79 votes in 2021. In return, Hisommudin believes BN could ask PN to hand over either the Bemban or Sungai Udang seats, both of which were won by PN with larger majorities in the state elections.

The three-way contest resulted in many seats witnessing intense competition, especially in majority Malay areas, leading to several seats being won by thin margins - as low as 1,000 votes. Notably, Pengkalan Batu (131 votes), Duyong (200), Tanjung Bidara (364), Gadek (559), Durian Tunggal (559), Paya Rumput (629), Pantai Kundor (827), and Rembia (860) were among the seats won with narrow margins.

Hisommudin predicts that BN and PN will adopt a pragmatic approach in their negotiations, considering factors like candidate strength, local networks, and the party's record in a particular area. Ultimately, the main consideration will be who has the best chance of winning a seat. Hisommudin suggests that BN might cede the Bukit Katil seat, currently held by PAS Vice President Amanah and former Melaka Chief Minister Adly Zahari since 2018, to PAS.

However, PN candidate Muhammad Al Afiz Yahya also secured 3,715 votes, a decent number. PAS previously held the seat from 2013 to 2018, when the area was known as Bukit Baru. PN is unlikely to win 14 seats, as PN could claim 14 seats based on three parliamentary seats PN won in the 2022 elections - Masjid Tanah, Tangga Batu, and Jasin.

BN has no parliamentary seats in Melaka. "Masjid Tanah and Jasin each have five parliamentary seats, while Tangga Batu has four, making it likely for PN to claim 14 of the 28 parliamentary seats," Hisommudin notes. However, Syaza Shukri from Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia believes that most parliamentary seats in the three relevant regions are traditionally held by Umno, making it difficult for BN to relinquish them.

Therefore, Hisommudin expects a compromise rather than a complete redraw based on the 2022 parliamentary constituency map if PN manages to get what it wants. Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Mazlan Ali believes that there isn't much PN can offer BN in Melaka, especially PAS, which currently holds only the Rembia seat after Adly Zahari left Umno.

"The problem is, what does PAS offer?" Mazlan asks. "If they want to cooperate, BN will have to sacrifice more." In the 2021 elections, Bersatu won the Sungai Udang and Bemban seats for PN. Former Bersatu MP Dr Yadzil Yaakub subsequently joined Wawasan after being sacked by Bersatu.