As Iran-US negotiation window closes, countries race to reload, prepare for further war - analysis

The 60-day negotiating window between the United States and Iran that aimed to establish a more enduring agreement concluded on August 17 without a comprehensive resolution. Consequently, the military balance between the two nations has diverged significantly from the status quo prior to the ceasefire.

During the period of reduced hostilities, Iran has focused on repairing and upgrading its military infrastructure. This includes restoring launchers, regaining access to damaged facilities, and expediting the production of missiles and drones. Simultaneously, the United States is grappling with dwindling supplies of interceptors and precision munitions employed throughout the conflict.

Meanwhile, countries in the Gulf region, which have borne the brunt of Iranian missile and drone strikes, are actively seeking additional air-defense systems and ammunition.

Israel, having been directly targeted by Iranian missiles and drones, has intensified its efforts to bolster its defense capabilities. The country has escalated production of its interceptors and aerial munitions in response to the threat posed by Tehran's military reconstitution. Notably, Israel has accelerated the creation of its own interceptors and aerial munitions, augmenting its defensive arsenal in anticipation of potential future confrontations.

The negotiation hiatus has functioned simultaneously as a period of military reconstitution for Iran. Majid Mousavi, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, acknowledged in April that Iran was accelerating the replenishment of missile and drone launchers, surpassing its pre-war rate. Independent verification of these claims remains elusive.

According to Reuters, Iran has reportedly restarted some drone production during the six-week ceasefire that commenced in April. Moreover, in July, CNN and two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments indicated that Iran is set to receive an initial shipment of up to 400 shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers from China. These new defenses are intended to bolster Iran's capacity to counter potential aggression.

Satellite imagery published by The Wall Street Journal on July 23 revealed that Iran has been actively restoring access to underground missile facilities at a pace faster than Israeli officials had anticipated. Additionally, the imagery suggested reconstruction activities at a missile-component plant situated near Tehran, although more advanced components of Iran's weapons sector seemed to be more challenging to revive.

While Iran's military capacity has undoubtedly been augmented, available public information does not substantiate the notion that the country has restored its pre-war missile-production or operational capabilities to a complete extent. This uncertainty is pivotal for Israeli decision-making processes.

Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former head of the Iran branch in Israel's Research and Analysis Division, emphasized that concentrating exclusively on the count of destroyed production sites may obscure the residual missile arsenal that Iran may still possess. He contended that even during the conflict with the United States, Iran had launched long-range ballistic missiles towards Jordan, indicating that its missile capabilities remain potent.

Furthermore, various reports from Israel suggest that Iran has managed to revive its manufacturing capacity, although not entirely.

Citrinowicz highlighted that despite Israel's operational gains throughout the 39-day war, Iran retained sufficient missiles and launchers to perpetuate hostilities for several weeks or months. His assessment underscores a structural challenge exposed by the conflict – while strikes can obliterate fixed production sites, launchers, and command infrastructure, they prove more difficult to dismantle technical expertise, dispersed supply networks, underground storage facilities, and the political will to rebuild.

Iran has been engaged in the development of a largely indigenous ballistic missile industry for decades, as this technology enables Tehran to menace targets beyond its borders despite the limitations of its conventional air force. The war inflicted damage upon this infrastructure, yet it did not eradicate the strategic rationale driving Iran's reliance on ballistic missiles.

Strategic analyst John Keith King, the founder of Q Advisory, cautioned against interpreting every indication of resumed production as evidence that Iran had entirely regained its previous military strength. He pointed out that public estimates have been markedly divergent. An Israeli Air Force official estimated in early April that Iran retained slightly more than 1,000 missiles capable of reaching Israel, while US intelligence assessments cited in American reporting placed the surviving share at approximately 70% of Iran's prewar stockpile.

Later Israeli reports suggested that roughly two-thirds of Iran's launchers remained operational. King also noted that satellite analysis revealed that Iran had reopened 50 of the 69 entrances at 18 underground missile facilities.

King stressed that the significance of operational launchers, missile accuracy, command-and-control resilience, availability of solid-fuel components, and the ability to conduct sustained coordinated barrages are of equal, if not greater, importance than the total number of missiles. He emphasized that some of the current estimates stem from Israeli security sources, which necessitate continuous independent verification.

Ultimately, the relevant calculation transcends the mere quantification of Iran's missile inventory, focusing instead on whether Tehran possesses an adequate number of functioning launchers, command networks, and precision systems to unleash large-scale missile barrages, whether Israel can swiftly identify and neutralize these systems, and whether Israeli and American missile defenses can withstand another protracted exchange.