2027: Can Okpebholo Really Deliver 2.5m Edo Votes for Tinubu?

Ahead of the 2027 general elections, Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State claims to have the capacity to deliver up to 2.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu. However, many political analysts view this figure as more of a political aspiration than a realistic projection that could distort strategic planning at the national level.

This claim comes at a time when frustration over road conditions is evident across Edo State's highways. Drivers like Osaze Omoruyi, stranded by a broken-down bus on a rain-soaked highway, express skepticism about Okpebholo's projections, emphasizing that roads such as the Benin–Warri Expressway and Agbor–Abavo–Urhonigbe–Abraka Road will likely determine voters' choices.

Despite Okpebholo's strong hold on the state's political machinery—winning his 2024 governorship race and having his victory affirmed by the Supreme Court—Edo's electoral history suggests that voters are capable of separating state leadership from national presidential preferences. In the 2023 presidential election, the Labour Party’s Peter Obi secured 331,163 votes, significantly outpacing Tinubu’s 144,471 votes.

For Tinubu to achieve a near 2.5 million vote total, a major political realignment would be required, a shift that political observers doubt is attainable.