Why the Mecca Agreement has given the UAE-Israel alliance the jitters

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed on 7 August, caught the Emirati and Israeli intelligence services off guard. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had long wanted to create a Muslim alliance to counter Israel's actions in Gaza. Despite setbacks, he remained committed to the project. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) initially kept his intentions hidden, making moves that seemed collegial depending on which side they benefited.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed a nuclear agreement with the US last month, but President Trump canceled it, demanding Saudi normalization with Israel beforehand. This led to Saudi strikes against militias commanded by Iranian advisers in Iraq and an attack on Yemen as the ceasefire with Ansar Allah unraveled.

The US-led military campaign against Iran cracked the US-led regional order. The Mecca pact could mark its end. For the Saudi intelligentsia, witnessing US support for Israel's actions in Gaza without defending their own interests shattered their faith in the US. Dr. Ahmed Altuwaijri, a Saudi Shura Council member, believes the agreement benefits Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia by providing military, intelligence, and planning support.

Iran's negotiators aim to prolong tensions until Trump's midterm elections, hoping to weaken him politically. All three founding members of the agreement stand to gain - Pakistan against India, Turkey against Israel, and Saudi Arabia from the increased military, intelligence, and planning capabilities of Turkey and Pakistan.