The age of ‘strategic refineries’

The global debate over energy security has been reignited by the resurgence of strategic refineries. While crude oil may flow freely, it is the conversion of this raw material into usable fuels like petrol and diesel at refineries that determines a nation's power and ability to supply its consumers. Wars, sanctions, and disruptions to maritime navigation have forced countries to reevaluate the importance of refineries in maintaining energy security.

In recent years, despite the rise of electric vehicles and a shift towards cleaner energy, the construction and expansion of refineries have recommenced. The International Energy Agency predicts a substantial increase in global refining capacity, with 4.2 million barrels per day set to become operational by 2030, despite closures in some advanced economies.

However, this new boom in refining is not uniform across the globe. While Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are witnessing a surge in new and expanded refineries, Europe is seeing closures. The reason for this disparity lies in the strategic importance of refineries. A refinery's value lies not just in its number, but in its ability to process various grades of crude, access multiple sources, and connect to diverse storage facilities and alternative shipping routes.

The Strait of Hormuz, for instance, is a significant chokepoint where 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products pass. Disruption in this region could cause shortages of consumer products even if crude production continues elsewhere. Thus, the strategic value of a refinery is determined by its flexibility and resilience in the face of potential disruptions, not merely its quantity.