New model measures full economic value of accurate hurricane forecasts
When it comes to the cost of a bad forecast, researchers have gone beyond damaged buildings and vehicles to calculate the cost of injuries, evacuations and the long-term loss of public trust.
A new model has been developed to measure the full economic value of accurate hurricane forecasts, moving beyond damage to buildings and vehicles to account for injuries, evacuations and long-term loss of public trust. Researchers led by FIU statistician Sneh Gulati and former Naval Research Laboratory meteorologist Buck Sampson created this expanded model, which incorporates the costs of injuries, evacuation, and forecast errors.
Using data from decades of hurricane incidents, the researchers found that each injury has an average economic impact of $133,066. Military bases, such as those serving as a real-world testing ground for the model, saw savings ranging from about $200,000 per storm at smaller bases to over $70 million at larger installations. The study, published in Natural Hazards, shows that military readiness can range from securing facilities to evacuating personnel and relocating ships and aircraft, and these expenses can be weighed against storm risks.
These calculations can help both the public and government entities understand the importance of storm preparation and accurate forecasting.
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