NATO no longer deters Russia. A new coalition could

Russia's aggression will continue until Europe demonstrates the political will and military capability to halt it, according to Hans Petter Midttun, a former defense attaché to Ukraine. Midttun argues that NATO can no longer serve as a deterrent, and a new coalition anchored in Ukraine should take its place. This proposal has been his stance since before discussing it openly.

Midttun's concerns stem from the failure of the Western deterrence strategy, which he believes has proven ineffective against Russia. He questions the very notion of "the West" as a cohesive strategic entity, suggesting that NATO and the European Union may no longer be viable deterrents. He points to three key reasons for this failure:

1. If NATO were genuinely deterring Russia, Ukraine would not have been invaded. Despite NATO's 2010 Strategic Concept not obligating it to defend Ukraine, the concept did acknowledge the need to manage conflicts threatening the Alliance's security. Russia must have recognized NATO's ability to respond before invading Ukraine.

2. If Russia were deterred, it would not be waging an escalating hybrid war against NATO territory. The ongoing campaign to undermine the Alliance is an example of such hybrid warfare, but NATO has failed to acknowledge this reality, leaving security concerns unaddressed.

3. If Russia were deterred, it would not be preparing for potential attacks on NATO members. The Kremlin's active preparations for a possible attack on NATO members further undermines the idea of effective deterrence.

Midttun argues that NATO is no longer the solution to Russia's aggression. Instead, he proposes a new coalition centered around Ukraine to effectively deter Russian expansion. He attributes the decline in NATO's effectiveness to several factors, including a loss of credibility after the Cold War, the transatlantic divide between Europe and the United States, and Europe's lack of commitment to security and defense.