Geldanlage: Kann eine 150 Jahre alte Grafik die Börsenkurse vorhersagen?
Aus dem Handelsblatt-Archiv: Eine Kurve aus dem 19. Jahrhundert sagt erstaunlich präzise die Entwicklung der Märkte voraus. Für 2026 empfiehlt sie, Aktien zu verkaufen. Wie verlässlich das wirklich ist.
A 150-year-old chart that claims to predict stock market trends is still being referenced by investors today. The chart, called "Periods when to make Money" and originating in the 1870s, has been credited with accurately forecasting crises such as the 1929 crash, the dotcom bubble burst in the early 2000s, and the 2020 Coronavirus crash.
It also predicted selling assets in 2026. However, financial expert Andreas Hackethal from the Frankfurt Leibniz Institute for Financial Market Research SAFE argues that the chart's accuracy is likely due to random chance rather than true analysis. He explains that the chart's assumptions were based on planetary configurations, or astrology, rather than economic reasoning.
Hackethal emphasizes that the market is far too complex for simple patterns to accurately predict long-term developments. He warns that trying to time the market does not work, as only a few lucky days can make a significant difference in returns. Instead, he recommends diversifying investments and weathering short-term setbacks.
Written by urgent.news from Handelsblatt's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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