Entertainment value of European soccer remains high despite top clubs' dominance
The appeal of soccer matches to spectators is a key factor in the success of professional sports leagues. League officials therefore seek to make competitions as interesting as possible. But how can the appeal of matches and competitions be measured?
Soccer's entertainment value remains strong despite dominance by top clubs, according to a study from the University of Tübingen and the University of Zurich published in the European Journal of Operational Research. Researchers analyzed matches from the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1, finding that suspense and surprise are key factors in a match's appeal.
A match is considered suspenseful when multiple outcomes seem possible and unclear for as long as possible, while surprise is an unexpected event, like an underdog taking the lead. The study used simulations of theoretically balanced matches to create reference values for expected suspense and surprise. Comparing these with real matches, the researchers found that many games had less suspense than expected, particularly those involving top clubs.
However, surprise levels remained close to the reference values, with unexpected developments still occurring regularly. The findings suggest that suspense and surprise can provide a more nuanced understanding of soccer's entertainment value, which could help assess the impact of competition reforms.
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