El petróleo prepara una nueva escalada con el fin de la tregua

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran concluded yesterday without achieving any progress in the peace negotiations or reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Contrary to expectations, President Trump threatened this week to initiate a total economic war against the Islamic Republic. This could indefinitely prolong the closure of the world's main artery for oil and gas transit, driving up prices for both commodities in the year's final stretch, according to analysts.

The Brent oil price, a reference in Europe, continued to rise and surpassed $90 per barrel yesterday, following a surge of more than 15% in the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the TTF gas price in the Dutch hub, the main entry point for the Old Continent, reached 62.3 euros per megavolt/hour, a 19% increase over early August levels. Experts warn that the price surge is just beginning, as Western countries' energy reserves are at historic lows.

For the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, the end of the cease-fire, which has been ruled out outright by Iran due to negotiations exhausting from the outset, has significantly impacted maritime traffic in the channel over the weekend. Only three ships passed through the strait on Sunday, a figure contrasting with the 15-20 daily ships recorded in recent days (according to commercial analysis firm Kpler) and paltry compared to the 130 vessels that crossed daily before the war erupted in February.

The coming days will be intense regarding the situation in the Persian Gulf. President Donald Trump must announce this week what the total economic war against Iran entails and how it can be avoided from turning against the US economy. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessetn threatened Iran with never-before-seen economic measures and a continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing any entry or exit of goods from Iranian ports.

The objective would be to force Tehran to back down in the negotiations in the following months. This could possibly involve an indefinite blockade of the strait, as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hinted that the US military was trained to do it by rotating deployed forces, as we have done and will continue to do, to limit troop fatigue and ensure the good material condition of the armament.

However, it remains to be seen whether the US military is economically viable to maintain this blockade. So far, the war in Iran has already cost the Treasury more than $40 billion, generating indirect losses to the US economy of over $80 billion based on conservative estimates. And if Washington wants to implement a large-scale operation to keep traffic open in Hormuz, the cost would also be very high, estimated by analysts for the Freedom Project, barely executed in May, at around $500 million per day.

Moreover, it is a mission with significant military, civil, economic, and reputational risks for the US army. On the other hand, Iran not only rejected the extension of the cease-fire, given the limited negotiation willingness of the United States in its opinion, but also escalates the conflict. Specifically, Tehran announced yesterday that it set a reward of $30,000 for each captured US soldier in the Middle East, doubling for women.

Iran also signaled that this time it would take the offensive, although it remains to be seen if its army has sufficient capacity to do so. Furthermore, Trump also threatened to bomb Oman mercilessly if this Arab country stands in the way of Washington and Tehran's dialogue on controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's words come after the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei assured media that Tehran had reached an agreement with Oman to establish safe maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key strategic passage through which a large part of the world's exported hydrocarbons transit, thus hoping to circumvent any possible US blockade.

Thus, the extension of this conflict to more countries in the Middle East complicates the sustainability of the offensive. While oil and gas prices have recently stabilized, yesterday they recorded a significant increase, surpassing $90 per barrel. Analysts warn that this increase is nothing compared to what can be expected in the coming months, unlike February when developed countries had substantial oil and refined product reserves. Western energy inventories are at historic lows since 1990.