El Nino seen deepening India’s rainfall deficit through Sept
European forecaster says best of monsoon over for India; overall shortfall at 13%
India is expected to experience an intensifying rainfall deficit through September, propelled by the strengthening influence of the El Nino weather phenomenon, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The monsoon's wet spell, currently underway, is likely to wane by the end of August as El Nino takes hold, potentially causing the deficit to widen further in September, the weather agency's forecast indicates.
The private weather forecaster Skymet has revised its outlook for the South-West monsoon to 85% of the long-term average and predicts a 70% chance of drought. As of August 16, the country-wide monsoon deficit stood at 13%, with East and North-East India facing the most significant shortfall at 27%, followed by the South Peninsula at 21%.
North-West India has a 12% deficit, while Central India remains relatively unaffected, with only a 1% deficit. The highest monsoon deficiency is reported in Arunachal Pradesh at 39%, closely followed by Assam and Meghalaya at 38% each. Punjab and Coastal Andhra Pradesh are both 36% below normal, while Rayalaseema has a deficit of 35%.
Over 45% of India's 6,363 tehsils are currently experiencing rain deficiency. Despite a low-pressure system's presence near Kolkata, the monsoon's grip over East and North-East India is expected to weaken from mid-September, indicating that India may have already experienced the peak of this year's monsoon.
Written by urgent.news from Hindu BusinessLine's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
