Super El Niño 15,000 km away could flip Spain’s next winter upside down

Spain braces for an unusually hot and potentially harsh winter as a powerful Super El Niño looms over the Pacific. Meteorologists are forecasting a 95% chance that this extreme climate event will influence European weather right through spring 2027, making it the strongest El Niño ever experienced by humans. The peak of this Super El Niño is expected between November and January, coinciding with the coldest months in Europe.

As temperatures in the east Pacific soar 5-6°C above average, the West Coast of the United States experiences its driest winter in over a century while Spain bakes under the relentless heatwave. Should the Super El Niño materialize, it could bring a winter of polar vortex instability, bringing weeks of hard frosts and snow to higher ground and inland areas in Spain.

Alternatively, the extra warmth locked into the atmosphere could produce a milder, wetter winter, as has been the case in recent years. However, other factors such as sea temperatures in the North Atlantic and the position of the polar jet stream will also play crucial roles in determining the final outcome. Nevertheless, the odds are clearly tipped in favor of an atypical winter, with the Pacific already loading the dice for either extreme weather scenarios.