“Russia Won’t Collapse Any Time Soon, But It Could Break” — Interview With Cormac Smith

Cormac Smith, a strategic communications expert and former advisor to Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, provides an in-depth assessment of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In an interview with UATV English, Smith discusses the impact of Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign on Russia, as well as the potential consequences of continued military pressure on the Russian economy.

Over the past two weeks, Wildberries, Russia's largest online marketplace, has lost at least eight major logistics hubs, with the Moscow Times estimating the recovery cost to exceed $16 billion. Bloomberg has reported over 30 strikes on oil infrastructure in July alone, with Volgograd and Saratov refineries having already halted processing. Smith believes these strikes represent strategic pressure on Russia's rear logistics and a systematic degradation of the Russian war machine.

Smith argues that the war has brought the hardships faced by the Russian people closer to home, particularly in St. Petersburg and Moscow. He notes that Russia has been living under sanctions for over three years, adapting and still managing to pay for the war. However, Smith warns that there is a risk of overestimating the effect of the strikes, as Russia's economy is degrading but not likely to collapse anytime soon. At current levels, as long as Russia continues selling its oil, it may endure for three to five years.

The high cost of oil and the resulting inflation have led to many Russian companies becoming unprofitable, and food prices becoming inaccessible for many ordinary Russians. Despite Putin's iron grip on the Russian people, Smith believes that the pressure from the war will continue to mount. He emphasizes that 41% of Russia's government budget is now allocated to the war effort, meaning less money for public services and more for the war.

Smith discusses a potential bill in the United States that could levy tariffs of 500% on any country buying Russian oil. While he doubts that Donald Trump would implement such a measure, Smith asserts that the West must rely less on the United States as a reliable security partner. He reiterates that the key to Ukraine's victory is arming Ukraine and sanctioning Russia to the point of forcing it to the brink of collapse.