Africa's low-key high-stakes Strait of Hormuz diplomacy

The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global trade route, has been plagued by blockages for six months following US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Ships have faced attacks and threats from Iranian forces and the US/Washington, disrupting cargo shipping. Diplomatic efforts, including talks and a third-party mission proposal, have failed to stabilize the situation. Iran has reportedly reached an agreement with Oman to establish a shipping route, potentially resolving the issue.

The conflict has caused global fossil fuel price hikes and inflation, with African nations experiencing shortages, affecting fuel, fertilizers, and harvests. African governments are keen to find a lasting solution. Diplomatic engagement in the region has been low-key, focusing on negotiations and adherence to international rules. Despite backing the US and Gulf states, African nations avoid directly blaming the US president, Donald Trump.

Experts suggest that African countries should diversify supply chains and evaluate their interests to adapt to disruptions. While some nations, like Kenya, have managed well, others like Ethiopia face challenges. The crisis could also impact African economies, particularly those reliant on Gulf exports. However, nations like Nigeria, with significant oil sector developments, may benefit from the crisis.

The African Union's hesitance in taking a unified stance is noted, as past criticisms of Russia have led to muted positions.