The possibility of the strongest El Nino ever recorded has increased, and the likelihood of this year being the hottest on record has also risen to 69%.

The strongest El Niño event in recorded history appears likely, with a 69% probability, according to the latest analysis. This development could make this year the warmest on record, surpassing the previous two warmest years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that a "very strong El Niño" is expected to occur in North Hemisphere autumn and winter, with a 90% probability.

The occurrence of such a strong El Niño has a 69% chance, according to NOAA's latest assessment. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, and it can lead to extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall worldwide. In the past month, the Niño3.4 index, which measures the deviation of average sea surface temperatures in a specific region, has exceeded 1.4 degrees Celsius, indicating a very strong El Niño event.

This is the highest temperature recorded in the early stages of El Niño, which is unprecedented in modern history. Consequently, the likelihood of this year being the warmest on record has increased significantly. While most climate analysis institutions previously estimated that global temperatures would rise to the second or third highest levels compared to pre-industrial levels, recent analysis has shown that the probability of this year exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has reached 99%.

El Niño's impact typically intensifies in the following year, so 2027 is expected to be even warmer. While its specific effects on Korea are not yet fully understood, it is clear that the warming trend will be felt globally. Last July was the hottest on record, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in nearly the entire northern hemisphere.

European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reported that the global average temperature in July 2024 was 1.47 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average, making it the second hottest July on record, tied with July 2024.