Scenarios: Three possible paths to Argentina’s 2027 election

President Javier Milei has transitioned from a likely winner to a candidate whose place in the run-off is no longer assured. The relationship between presidents and their societies is bipolar, leading to extreme forecasts. Three broad scenarios are considered:

1. The Milei government's economic plan brings tangible improvements, and the Peronist candidate fails to distance himself from Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's negative image, allowing Milei to win the run-off.

2. The economic plan fails to bring improvements, and social discontent persists, creating an opportunity for a candidate who maintains the current economic course with adjustments. This candidate may emerge from a centrist alliance with strong provincial presence.

3. The economic plan worsens voters' quality of life, leading to a preference for a different economic model altogether. The electorate may move from anti-Kirchnerism to anti-Mileism, potentially giving the Peronist candidate victory.

These scenarios can be further strengthened and combined based on factors like PASO primaries, Peronism's unity or division, and the timing of provincial and Buenos Aires City elections. The national PASO primaries, if retained, would move the electoral calendar forward by two months. If Peronism remains united, it could make it harder for Mauricio Macri's PRO party to lead the 'Juntos por el Cambio 2.0' coalition.

External factors like Vice-President Victoria Villarruel's nationalism and anti-capitalism leader Myriam Bregman could also influence the outcome. The economy will always be the decisive factor, but the argument underpinning the vote may change depending on the scenario.