Russia’s role in Middle East politics endures, shifts to being ‘secondary power’
Russia is confounding expectations that its influence in the Middle East would drastically decline after the downfall of Syria’s Assad regime in 2024. At the time, Moscow operated about 100 military facilities in the war-torn country, following its intervention in the Syrian civil conflict from 2015 to prop up then president Bashar al-Assad in alliance with Iran and its regional proxies. When…
As the Assad regime in Syria fell in 2024, Russia's once dominant influence in the Middle East seemed on the brink of collapse. However, President Vladimir Putin's government has managed to maintain its two most valuable assets in Syria: the Hmeimim airbase and a portion of the port in Tartus, which is Russia's only warm-water naval base in the Mediterranean.
According to a new deal, these bases will be transformed into "joint training and capacity-building centres," with Russian military personnel remaining at both locations under the new arrangement. Russia aims to hold onto its footprint in Syria, with a focus on the Syrian coast to retain access to warm-water ports, according to Caroline Rose, a senior director at the Soufan Centre.
Russia is now considered an "important secondary power" in the region, rather than a major power broker, as its ability to project power has diminished due to the ongoing Ukraine war. Analysts suggest that by maintaining its presence and partnerships with Middle Eastern countries as the US recedes from the region, Russia is strategically leveraging its position to counter Western sanctions and shape energy prices.
The country is also expanding its nuclear power projects in the Middle East through Rosatom, seeking to diversify partnerships and establish long-term dependencies on its technology and expertise.
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