Rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro exceeds Lula's despite his gains in voting intention
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro registers a 54% rejection rate among Brazilian voters, two points above the 52% recorded by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, according to the Quaest poll released on Friday, two days before campaigning officially opens for the October 4 elections.
A recent poll indicates that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the candidate for the upcoming Brazilian elections on October 4, experiences a 54% rejection rate from voters, a margin of just two points higher than President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who registers a 52% rejection rate. This comes despite Flávio Bolsonaro's improvement in voting intention; should he reach a runoff, he would secure 40% compared to the president's 43%.
This trend marks the third consecutive poll showing a narrowing gap: in July, the difference was eight points, and in early August, it stood at five points. With a two-point margin of error, the current gap sits at the edge of statistical significance.
The discrepancy between polls is significant. The CNT/MDA survey conducted between August 5 and 9 shows Lula at 48% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 39.1%, a difference of nearly nine points. Quaest's survey from August 10 to 13 reports a smaller three-point gap. In the first round, Lula receives 38% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro garners 31%, followed by Renan Santos and former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado, each with 4%.
Lula is the sole candidate leading a coalition of parties, while Flávio Bolsonaro is backed by Alfredo Gaspar, a federal deputy from Alagoas, a former prosecutor, and a former rapporteur of the parliamentary inquiry into the social security institute.
Flávio Bolsonaro's platform emphasizes combating organized crime, judicial reform, adjusting public spending, and a foreign policy focused on the United States, Argentina, and Israel. His running mate, Alfredo Gaspar, focuses on the same themes. The rejection of Flávio Bolsonaro coincides with reduced media scrutiny on allegations linking him to businessman Daniel Vorcaro, who is currently in detention for a fraud investigation.
Vorcaro owned Banco Master, which was shut down by the central bank following his arrest. Flávio Bolsonaro insists the alleged arrangement with Vorcaro was a private sponsorship for a private project, with no public funds involved.
Quaest interviewed 2,004 individuals between August 10 and 13, maintaining a 95% confidence level.
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