Peer-reviewed study of 443,000 Backblaze hard drives ranks HGST most reliable and Toshiba the least — Seagate a close second on most unreliable list
Backblaze's quarterly reports compare whichever drives are available at the time.
A recent peer-reviewed study conducted by economists Christoph Siemroth and Yeomyung Park analyzes 12 years of Backblaze's hard drive data, encompassing 443,156 drives and over 1.66 million drive-years from 2013 to Q2 2025. The research reveals that HGST drives fail approximately 41% of the rate of Seagate drives when drives of similar age, capacity, form factor, and operating temperature are compared.
WD ranks second to last at 52%, while Toshiba stands at the bottom with a failure rate of 107%. HGST, now owned by WD after its acquisition in 2012, is the most reliable brand. Seagate's monthly failure rate more than quadruples once its drives exceed 60 months in service, with no other manufacturer exhibiting such a significant jump at any age. Seagate's failure rate remains highest among young drives but stabilizes with age.
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