Anthropic Expects Mind-Blowing $200 Billion Revenue in 2028 as IPO Looms

Anthropic's IPO is expected to raise $2 trillion, with projected 2028 revenue of $200 billion, despite lacking actual results from the past three years. The company's revenue increased from $9 billion to $47 billion in just five months, a tenfold annual growth that the bankers use to justify the forecast. Similar companies like Cerebras and SpaceX, priced on future growth, saw declines of 40% or more after their IPOs.

Doomberg, a widely read finance newsletter, provides the unique perspective of heavy industry, private equity, and hard science professionals, who publish without advertisers or institutional backing. The IPO season in 2026 has become a trend of pricing companies based on unproduced results. Anthropic's IPO is set for October, and the bankers are using enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these forecasts.

While Anthropic's growth is real, the pattern from this year's other two mega-IPOs is also evident: strong openings followed by first-year drawdowns of 40% or more from the peak.